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Mid-October 2011

 

My, oh My, La Niña’s back—Does this mean an imminent Snow Wars Attack?

While it’s too early to tell, our records show—even weak La Niñas may bring lots of snow.

However, it’s not just amount we need consider, but how layers relate and wait for a trigger.

Recent accident info seems to suggest, La Niña snowpacks may be harder to test.

Buried weak layers formed early in winter—may persist for long times and not really sinter.

Infrequent large slides may abruptly go, when stressed to their limit by you or more snow.

Warming or wind can add to the mix, forming an increasing glut of bad snowy tricks.

So use caution ahead in this new snowy season—& use all of your skills and apply good reason.

 

********************** 

 

December 3, 2011

 

By the 3rd of December, La Niña gave to us—

A strong upper ridge, shallow snowpack, and many buried crusts.  

On the 4th of December, the ridge will send to thee—

Mostly fair skies, temperature inversions, and very low humidity.

From December 5th-7th, more of the same we see—

Warmer sunny days, a few high clouds, and mostly green boughs on the tree.

___

​

But though the weather’s benign this early December—

The snowpack is changing as you should remember.

Old rain crusts will facet under powder so thin—

And sun crusts will catch edges as you dig in.

Hoar frost that survives the ravages of sun—

May become a weak layer affecting future fun.

So later in December when the ridge goes away—

Think about such changes as you head out to play.

 

********************** 

 

December 17, 2011

 

Out in the Gulf where storms used to form--

Lies a happy ridge that's become the norm.

 

It sends storm north, or splits them south--

With only scant flakes left for an open mouth.

 

When will it all just go away--

And strong west flow stay and play?

 

Long range models start to suggest--

Maybe just after Christmas as a first guess.

 

[Else someone here's been really bad--

And no snow here will be had.]

 

But NoNoNo, if good is what we've been...

Then HoHoHo, this snow drought will end.

 

**********************

 

December 18, 2011

 

Christmas Dreaming

 

A week before Christmas and thru much of the west—

Lies a shallow snowpack with facets to test.

 

But before this occurs and sleighs leave the North Pole—

The prevailing west winds need to get on a roll.

 

Recent  ridges have dominated incoming storms—

Along with split flows that make the new norms.

 

But harken I hear happy bells on the sleigh—

Could it mean a late Christmas is at last on its way?

 

A bit early to tell, but models look quite alluring—

That colder deep snows we may soon be enduring.

 

So open your minds to let snowfall within—

For our dreams are a great place to begin.

 

But remember with snowfall comes a new load—

On all of those weak layers about which we’ve been told.

 

So increase your caution if your dreams all come true—

Don’t be found in the snowpack, all white and blue.

 

********************** 

 

December 24, 2011

 

Twas the night before Christmas and all through the west—

The snowpack was thin, feeling a little distressed.

 

Plum full of facets and crystals that glitter—

It was a mite on the weak side and could have been fitter.

 

When Christmas Eve passed , there arose a great clatter—

For across the Pacific steamed storms that do matter.

 

Following close behind reindeers, St Nick and his sleigh—

Santa brought westerlies that are well on their way.

 

While Saturday’s light rain, freezing rain and some snow—

May not be first on your list as worthy gifts go.

 

When followed by cooler snows, deep and enticing--

It might be okay if there’s cake with that icing.

 

Beware that later on Christmas loads slowly increase—

Which may start to awaken the avalanche beast.

 

Then Monday and Tuesday look positively storming—

As deep lows in the Gulf keen on a forming.

 

So as the jolly one yelled as he soared out of sight—

Snow’s on the way…have a safe and merry delight.

 

********************** 

 

January 12, 2012

 

January Change

 

After weeks of ridges and too much rain—

The upper flow is changing toward a snowpack gain.

 

After the ridge flattened Thursday for clouds mixed with sun—

It briefly rebounds today on the current model run.

 

Above a weak inversion freezing levels are high—

But until late Friday we stay pretty dry.  

 

Then a deep upper low reaches theWashington coast—

Bringing winds and cooling and snowfall to most.

 

But bonding  to crusts or hoar may be weak—

Making touchy new wind slabs on slopes that you seek.

 

Then colder with showers thru the weekend ahead—

Should make things quite sporting if you head out to shred.

 

Time for more thought about steep lee terrain—

That will be loaded by more than just rain.

 

**********************

 

January 17, 2012

 

Lucky Friday

Last Friday the 13th, a lucky day indeed—

For it started the snow that we greatly need.

 

Temperatures plunged Saturday as the snow arrived—

Making bonds with old snow that won’t long survive.

 

This was followed by more snow into early this week—

Producing abundant powder, the kind that we seek.

 

Of course all is not merry in the land of steep slopes—

And lee terrain should be approached with prayer & hopes.

 

For now on Tuesday the danger should worsen—

With heavy snow and winds that you might be cursin’.

 

Avalanche watches are out with warnings to follow—

On a snowpack that in some places appears quite hollow.

 

With warming and heavier snow likely tomorrow—

You might stay home and read a book you can borrow.

 

For the danger should pretty much go through the roof—

And  many large slides should give abundant proof.

 

Take care out there and use your head not your eyes—

If it all looks like pow, you’ll be sadly surprised.

 

 

 

January 22, 2012

 

January Rebound

Not had enough? You want some more—Another storm’s a-knocking at the door.

Winds increase along with snow—Though temps remain nice and low.

This should add new loads to the mix—Making for new bags of tricks.

Landing on Saturday’s weaker layers—Should be new & slabbier players.

Although danger’s down from last week’s mess—And new storm snow is what you’ll test.

There’s still alot of new snow load—And not the time to be too bold.

Though Monday’s break starts snow to settle—It will add more weak layers to the kettle.

Strong flow Tuesday into mid-week—Along with warming the pack will tweak.

More danger lurks ‘round the bend—For it aint’ over until the end.

Care and caution is what you’ll need—Or else on you the snow will feed.

 

 

 

February 7, 2012

 

Early February Evolution

 

A strong blocking ridge is slowly retreating—

After forming layers that may be fleeting.

 

Though crusts and wind sculpted snow may last—

Sun or rain destroy hoar frost real fast.

 

Then there’s recycled snow in shaded places—

That right now is making for happy faces.

 

But if the next storm comes in warm—

Then good bonding is what will form.

 

But if things cool before it snows—

Weaker bonds are what grows.

 

So be aware as you sally forth—

Especially slopes that face the north.

 

For weaker snow is what lies there—

And this may require greater care.

 

**********************

​

April 7, 2012

​

When winter snow, and spring sun collide—

You need to notice, for some have died.

From wet loose slides that sweep their prey—

Thru rocks and trees on a sun filled day.

Beneath April blue the snow gets warm--

To melt and weaken and small slides to form.

Saturday should be the warmest yet—

And more slide action is what we’ll get.

Though winds and clouds increase Sunday late—

Wind sheltered southerly slopes may test your fate.

So stay wary of cornices and loose wet snow—

And try to plan when and where you go.

 

 

​

March 21, 2012

 

Abundant weak surface snow early this week—

Were the target of wind driven snow that did seek.

 

To load and to stress and to cause a commotion—

Like the slabs that it spawned and set into motion.

 

With remote triggered slides, collapses and cracking—

Nature sent out some warnings that stability’s lacking.

 

Although lighter snow today  in the Olympics and north—

Should give some hope that spring may come forth.

 

Further south where the front stalled and should strengthen—

High danger persists and slab depths should lengthen.

 

So if you head out today, use care and attention—

As much danger lurks that is worthy of mention.

 

 

March 30, 2012

 

The last week of March, the first full week of spring—

How much more rain, wind and snow can it all bring?

 

Winter effects are not over, despite  what calendars say—

So don’t have a mantra of ride, hope and pray.

 

Dense wind slabs abound on slopes Northwest  thru East—

And cornices loom large like huge snowy beasts.

 

A stalled storm to the south is pouring rain and snow forth—

With slightly less precip in the central and north—

 

But the storm lifts north Saturday, & this should add to the load—

Making safe back country travel a very difficult road.

 

So before you go out, wherever you go—

Take some time to assess the state of the snow.

 

For slides don’t know whether you’re expert or not—

And don’t really give it a whole lot of thought.

 

********************** 

 

March 31, 2012 

​

Snow Memories

 

After many years of forecasting snow, rain and sun—

And giving danger trends for snow-filled fun.

It’s time to really enjoy a whole winter—

Without worrying  whether each grain will sinter.

Time to look at snow through a new set of eyes—

Though I still don’t want avalanches (danger) to be a surprise.

It’s been a great challenge most every day—

Interpreting weather models to see what they say.

And then applying those thoughts to the current snowpack—

To see what we know, and (as well as the info) what  we lack.

So thanks for listening and applying the forecast—

For the most recent storm won’t be the last.

Thanks for analyzing wind direction and speed—

And avoiding slopes on which snow slides feed.

Thanks for your focus and awareness out there—

And for trip reports about places you care.

Thanks to all who have helped to educate—

For because of you it’s never too late.

To change where you go, and what you do—

And how you do it, is all up to you.

Snowpacks care little about experts or not—

They can’t be bribed, or your safety bought.

So my wish is simple, when the season is done—

That no one has died, not even one.

​

**********************​

​

April 7, 2012

​

When winter snow, and spring sun collide—

You need to notice, for some have died.

From wet loose slides that sweep their prey—

Thru rocks and trees on a sun filled day.

Beneath April blue the snow gets warm--

To melt and weaken and small slides to form.

Saturday should be the warmest yet—

And more slide action is what we’ll get.

Though winds and clouds increase Sunday late—

Wind sheltered southerly slopes may test your fate.

So stay wary of cornices and loose wet snow—

And try to plan when and where you go.

​

**********************

 

April 12, 2012

 

Some of my thoughts on the Season just passed

 

Ode from an Avalanche-

 

My name is Avalanche, and you must try—

To understand me, or you may die.

My lair lies here, and it lies there—

On steep snowy slopes, almost anywhere.

I’m shaped by wind, and by the snow I receive—

In many layers and strengths, that can deceive.

Changing with temperature, and stressed by rain—

I weaken in sun with slides that bring pain.

So use care when you travel, in my homeland steep—

Or you’ll be alone and hurt, or buried deep.

Already a month past winter, and it’s not a fable—

That it will take time and warmth to make me stable.

But as we advance in spring, and I warm, melt & weaken—

To be safe in my home will take more than a beacon.

You’ll need to focus, respect and not rely on your gear—

For I’ll show many signs that my release time is near.

And if you really don’t care or just don’t know—

I urge you to stop before you’re covered by snow.

Fueled by thoughts of powder, adventure or fame—

It’s really not worth playing my avalanche game.

Though I may be soft and enticing, and very alluring.

Once I start to slide, my strength is enduring.

Life’s a good thing and fame is fleeting—

Learn about me and we won’t have to be meeting.

Thanks for listening—A. Avalanche (20 April 2012)

 

 **********************

​

Early May, 2012

 

Thoughts about the Back Country near Ski Areas (uncontrolled terrain just beyond ski area avalanche control procedures, aka Slack or Side Country)

 

The Back Country

 

Leaving Resort Boundary…In case that was missed—

Here slides and deep snow are just some of the risk.

No patrol nor control to make things okay—

And if you need rescue, you will have to pay.

So please take some time, to check out the snow—

Think about danger, and whether you’ll go.

But whatever you decide, when you step thru this gate—

The responsibility’s yours, as well as your fate.

 

The Back Country Redo

 

Side country, slack country—these terms are hot—

But risk here is assured, & your safety is not.

Avalanches and SIS are part of the risk—

No control nor patrol, in case that was missed.

Rescue’s expensive, and may not happen at all—

But the gate is open, so it is your call.

Just know that your safety is all up to you—

And how, when and where you choose what you do.

 

**********************

​

May 10, 2012

 

Serious Spring—

 

It’s almost mid-May and snowdepths are dropping—

Temperatures are climbing and La Niña is stopping.

But still lots of snow left to warm, melt and settle—

A natural process in which you don’t want to mettle.

Glide cracks and cornices are opening and falling—

And require extra care so its not you they are mauling.

There is ample wet snow that slides gouge and entrain—

Forming big debris piles and maybe death or great pain.

And a large spring slide cycle may yet be in the works—

As ripe snow by the ton on steep slopes still lurks.

Light winds, sun and warmth may be great for your mind—

But are not so good for the snowpack you’ll find.

With freezing levels reaching 12K or higher—

From Saturday thru Monday in wet snow you will mire.

Avoid slopes beneath cornices, and in chutes don’t stay—

Or if you must go there, travel fast and pray.

Avalanches starting and flowing from higher elevations—

Have growth and descent as part of their equations.

So take time, care and thought when you travel this spring—

For snow seeking its source some trauma may bring.

 

**********************

​

 Late May, 2012

 

I look at the snowpack, egad what a mess—

Studying  the weather models, I can’t even guess.

Time to stop and have a drink so black—

That will stir my mind to divine what I lack.

​

​

The Last Word

 

It’s now late May after a La Niña season—

A challenging year for many a reason.

 

Persistent weak layers during mid-winter—

Formed over a crust and did not sinter.

 

Subsequent snow and wind formed bad combinations—

Especially near Stevens and Alpental stations.

 

In addition to deaths, there were too many close calls—

Too many back country mistakes where the avalanche falls.

 

When you leave Resort Boundaries, in case that was missed—

Here slides and deep snow are just some of the risk.

 

No patrol nor control to make things okay—

And if you need rescue, you will have to pay.

 

So please take some time, to check out the snow—

Think about danger, and whether you’ll go.

 

But whatever you decide, when you step thru the gate—

The responsibility’s yours, as well as your fate.

 

**********************

 

​

June  2012

 

Late season haiku

 

a northwest winter…

forgotten until now

lurks round the corner

 

&&&&&

 

forgiving snow…

not much longer

thought advised

 

&&&&&

 

leaps of fancy…

remembered winter

is not gone

 

&&&&&

 

hallowed eve…

wintry dreams

may soon arrive

​

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