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December 7, 2010

 

 

 

At the start of December, the weather gave to us—

 

Some facets growing, surface hoar a sowing, and a bit of dust on a rotting crust.

 

 

 

On the 6th of December, the weather brought some pain—

 

Temperatures a climbing, snow and winds arriving, and some local freezing rain.

 

 

 

On the 7th of December, the weather gave to thee—

 

Avalanches thriving, temperatures a-diving, and plenty of danger yet to be.

 

 

 

Down in the snowpack, deep, deep deep—Live some facets, bleep, bleep, bleep.

 

Load ‘em up with wind and snow—Watch those slides go, go, go.

 

 

 

 

 

December 8, 2010

 

 

 

Ahh distinctly I recall, in that strong La Niña Fall—

 

I was a seasoned forecaster, trying hard to avoid disaster.

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The late October snows suggested later season woes,

 

As thru weak spots we did wallow, in a snow pack quite shallow.

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Facets here, hoar frost there, PWL’s most everywhere—

 

Need to resolve this fragile pack, & build some strength that we lack.

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But what I see is a deep strong trough, merging with moist flow aloft—

 

This should put us in the slammer, from a winter weather hammer.

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The next few days bring load galore, to our sparkling fragile store—

 

Slide activity should not be laggin’, as stress incites the avalanche dragon.

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So despite your skiing or riding skill, these are conditions that will kill—

 

For the forecast avy danger rose, looks as red as Rudolf’s nose.

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It’s time to ride less steep terrain, and use your head and your brain—

 

For despite beacon, probe and shovel, you may not stay out of trouble.

 

 

 

December 23, 2010

 

 

 

NW Jingle (apologies to Jingle Bells)

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Slashing thru the snow, on board or ski or sled—

 

Be aware of what the danger is, for it all shows up as red.

 

 

 

Oooohhh  wait, go slow, know the snow, choose your route with care—

 

Make decisions with your brain, before you launch big air.

 

 

 

Rain up high and low, stress is building fast—

 

All that snow from last week, on steep terrain won’t last.

 

 

 

So, don’t you go in this snow, for it’s all coming down—

 

Rain on snow as you know, turns smiles into frowns.

 

 

 

 

Silver spells (apologies to Silver Bells)

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Massive rain, what a pain—landing on last week’s snowfall.

 

Catch a ride, on a slide—and you’ll know why the danger’s high.

 

Be aware, extreme care—this is not time for bigger air.

 

Don’t you know,  when to go—inside and have some beer?

 

Have good cheer, La Niña’s here—and soon snow will be back.

 

 

 

 

 

December 24, 2010

 

 

 

Twas the day before Christmas and off the west coast,

 

Lurked a deep upper low that was bigger than most.

 

 

 

After filling California with buckets of rain,

 

It should slowly lift northward to lessen our pain.

 

 

 

The shy looking front bringing warmth, rain and wind—

 

Should move east on Christmas and let cooling begin.

 

 

 

On Sunday and Monday, temperatures plummet—

 

With heavy snow falls not just at the summit.

 

 

 

While this should result in many snow surprises—

 

Beware on lee slopes as the slide danger rises.

 

 

 

As you ride through the fluff with ample good cheer—

 

Ensure safe travel and have a great New Year.

 

 

 

 

 

December 30, 2010

 

 

 

As the 2010 year draws to a close,

 

It’s been an interesting start as everyone knows.

 

 

 

Rain, wind and snow we have surely not lacked,

 

As trough after trough the west coast attacked.

 

 

 

The most recent storm gave us wet snow and crust,

 

Which has now been covered with much more than dust.

 

 

 

With dry and cold Thursday in a northerly flow,

 

Facets and hoarfrost should form in the snow.

 

 

 

Add wind on Friday to transport and form—

 

Sensitive slabs that may not be the norm.

 

 

 

If cracks and whompfs signal the danger—

 

To safe routes and caution, don’t be a stranger.

 

 

 

 

January 24, 2011

 

 

 

La Niña Lament

 

 

 

La Niña, La Niña, where did you go?

 

Leaving us rain instead of more snow.

 

 

 

Either move the ridge east or move it west—

 

In either direction we’ll get snow to test.

 

 

 

While we have had cool and we have had wet,

 

We haven’t had both together quite yet.

 

 

 

Though longer range models may not give glee,

 

That the ridge stays and amplifies they all do agree.

 

 

 

So what does that leave except a snow pack quite grim,

 

With a smooth, firm crust that covers its rim.

 

 

 

Time to use caution and more on steeper terrain,

 

For a fall on this surface may trigger some pain.

 

 

 

Sharpen those edges and choose routes wisely,

 

Or you’ll slide to the bottom & not too nicely.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 9, 2011

 

 

 

Return of La Nina

 

Nina oh Nina, it's on its way back,

 

for us to recover the snow that we lack.

 

As with most wishes, it comes with some pain,

 

as dangers rise but not from rain.

 

Two days ahead of dry slow warming,

 

should provide weak layers for future storming.

 

The upper ridge leaves Friday for points to the east,

 

time to go from famine to feast.

 

A deep upper low settles in offshore,

 

to bring strong storms to knock at our door.

 

The weekend promises significant action,

 

as weak surface snow is stressed by compaction.

 

Though substantial snow is what we need,

 

don't be swayed by new powder greed.

 

Check out the snow as stresses rise,

 

& don't let slides be a surprise.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 3, 2011

 

 

 

Hoar frost, facets, graupel and more—

 

a  zoo of weakness makes bonding quite poor.

 

 

 

Sandwiched twixt wind slabs and the MLK crust,

 

buried weak layers makes safe routes a must.

 

 

 

Conservative decisions in wind loaded terrain,

 

means less to lose in burial or pain.

 

 

 

Though settlement helps, stress remains high—

 

with cracking and whumpfs before a slab lets fly.

 

 

 

The allure of untracked is hard to resist,

 

but wait for awhile or by slides you'll be dissed.

 

 

 

 

 

March 12, 2011

 

 

 

C’mon, c’mon, now…what is a ridge?

 

It’s something to help us out of the fridge.

 

 

 

One thousand foot snow levels are just not the norm,

 

And just maybe a ridge will help us to warm.

 

 

 

We’re not seeking tropical temps in the sun—

 

Just more springlike snow for some safer fun.

 

 

 

But NOOOO, a continued strong westerly flow—

 

Should keep us cool with periods of snow.

 

 

 

Will spring ever arrive…is an excellent question.

 

One that longer range models fail to mention.

 

 

 

Perhaps in May the warming will arrive.

 

Until then, stay safe and try to survive.

 

 

 

 

 

April 7, 2011

 

 

 

Wearied by storms, we capitulate—

 

The danger’s been scary, the powder great.

 

 

 

But we’ve had enough, you know what I mean…

 

A bit more sun would seem like a dream.

 

 

 

Not asking for lots, just more spring-like snow...

 

That’s softened by sun for a corn-like show.

 

 

 

But what’s in the Pacific is more of the same—

 

Strong westerly flow is the name of this game.

 

 

 

This Nina’s already got its name in lights,

 

For cool and snowy…& then rain day and nights.

 

 

 

Yet persistent weak layers are still around—

 

And may be ‘til snow has turned to ground.

 

 

 

With all of this snow sparkling like a jewel—

 

Don’t mix snow and sun is a springtime rule

 

 

 

 

 

April 15, 2011

 

 

 

Day after day, week after week—

 

Winter in spring is not what we seek.

 

 

 

Fluff in the spring is not a good deal,

 

It likes to slide and is like oatmeal.

 

 

 

It doesn’t last long before its breakable crust—

 

An unreliable one that’s hard to trust.

 

 

 

New snow is great, but enough is enough—

 

Time for stable spring snow, not more gooey stuff.

 

 

 

Yet spring is like this more often than not,

 

A time of transition before the weather turns hot.

 

 

 

And during this time when snow turns to mush,

 

And then from crusts to corn and more stable stuff.

 

 

 

There will be times when the danger is high—

 

That weak layers revive before they die.

 

 

 

Some prolonged warming in April or May—

 

May bring down the house & interrupt our play.

 

 

 

The potential is there for spring slides quite large,

 

For slabs of snow releasing  as big as a barge.

 

 

 

For slides running BIG, full path and more—

 

And setting new records in La Nina lore.

 

 

 

So use care and caution in this land of deep snow—

 

And check the snowpack often as you head out and go.