Avalanche Forecast Poems 2008-09
​December19-2008
Up in the mountains, the snow has arrived—
Bitter cold and a challenging drive.
A whole lot more is on the way,
Along with howling winds late Saturday.
But first a day with a clearing sky,
When showers in the south should slowly die.
Clouds increase by tomorrow morning,
Followed by snow and winds that should give warning.
Our current snowpack seems Rocky Mountain sown,
Shallow but increasing with facets grown.
Lots of fluff landing in your face,
Bottomless stuff that wind loads will erase.
So use care out there with this incredible snow—
If you fall in the untracked down you go.
And the winds ahead should increase the danger,
On lee slopes where slides will be no stranger.
December 26-2008
A normal winter, is what they all say-
Becoming more abnormal most every day.
Relatively shallow, fragile and cold-
Our snowpack lies there, waiting for load.
This weekend obliges, with weight galore-
Much denser snow, piled on facets and hoar.
Snowfall arrives Friday, especially overnight-
Heavy on Saturday, without much delight.
For warming arrives along with some rain—
Bringing high danger and a snowpack in pain.
Time to slow down, not push for first tracks—
Let the snow relax without more accident stats .
December 31, 2008
Say goodbye to this year, but wasn’t it great?
Lots of cold snow and facets to pile on your plate.
Add a most fragile snowpack that isn’t a bluff—
And lowland snowfall that made driving tough,
This last day of 08 should add some more snow,
With cooling and winds, becoming showery you know.
This should keep the danger considerable to high-
With plenty of slabs as 09 draws nigh.
Then as the New Year knocks and enters the door,
A freight train of loading should move in from offshore.
Snow followed by warming and rain sounds quite mean—
And with howling winds, dangers should ramp to extreme.
Much of the action should be in the new snow,
But with increasing load, larger slides will go.
Some may release all the way to the ground-
And avoiding avalanche terrain seems very sound.
January 17-2009
The upper ridge is big, bigger than most—
Stretching from LA to the Canadian coast.
It brought change from rain, a welcome diversion—
Along with much warmth above a strong inversion.
Proceeding down to the pass, you hit the temp wall—
An almost solid feeling, as if you might fall.
Warm and melt above, moist and cold below—
Make challenging conditions in near surface snow.
Crusts of fear in places, breakable nearby—
Turns may be tough, making equipment fly.
Hoar frost at night mostly dies during the day—
Except shaded north faces where it lingers to play.
At least some slopes have corn, that feels quite nice—
Just avoid steeper terrain that transition to ice.
Only minor changes ahead from this most stable flow—
With snow stability varying from moderate to low.
January 23-2009
High over low, low over high—
Doesn’t much matter as it looks pretty dry.
A weak system moving through later tomorrow—
Brings further cooling and a few flakes to borrow.
Ridging rebuilds on Sunday it seems,
Bringing an end to snow covered dreams.
Clearing and cold by late in the day,
Not much until Tuesday so the models say.
So if you like crusts you’re in for a treat—
Though weakening further as they lose more heat.
With shallow new or hoar lying over the crust—
Weather watching shifts from maybe to must.
February 5-2009
Blocking ridge, block no more,
Let westerly flow through the door.
Unfortunately this is wishful thinking,
As troughs to our south keep on sinking.
Splits and closed California lows,
Are currently the biggest woes.
The Southwest should become quite wet,
With floods and mud slides a reasoned bet.
Although weak moisture is moving north,
Mainly light snow will issue forth-
But don’t give up, it’s winter still,
And cooling temps will produce a chill.
The south and Hood should be the winners,
Perhaps they are lacking sinners.
But even a little is more than none,
And a lot of littles can still be fun.
February 12-2009
Splitting moisture, why do you go?
Plunging south round the California low—
We’re left with flurries and a faceted pack,
Amid surface crusts making a difficult track.
Surface hoar forms and is gently buried,
Awaiting a load to be downhill carried.
Winter o winter where have you gone,
Leaving us little but this whimsical song.
Split flows and ridges are our mid-winter curse,
At least it shouldn’t get too much worse.
No rain or pineapples in the long term mix,
Unless the forecast models are playing tricks.
So hang in there and watch the snow,
The little new loading can be tricky you know.
For shallow slabs on weaker layers,
Can challenge even the wisest players.
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March 11-2009
Current clearing and cold bring facets and hoar,
Factors to watch when storms beat down the door.
March sun melts snowflakes, and more than a few,
Yield nighttime crusts after day turns to goo.
And recent wind transport has made for some slabs,
On south and east aspects where local danger is bad.
But overall the snowpack should settle and rest,
Before the next weekend puts our skills to test.
Cooling and wind driven snow arrive Saturday it seems,
Loading hoar, crusts and facets and making bad dreams—
Follow this later Sunday with heavy snow and warming,
And ingredients are there for an avalanche warning.
March 15-2009
Just when some lawns were starting to green,
In comes a mean, winter storming machine—
Blasting into the Gulf of Alaska with force,
It brings snow, wind and danger of course.
The facets and hoar that were growing last week,
Are now the weak layers that new wind slabs seek.
In their constant quest to follow gravity’s law,
Downslope slabs creep, looking for a flaw.
So our mission is awareness and winter composure,
And avoiding steep terrain with an eastern exposure.
Though windward slopes may be scoured and stable,
Lee slopes hold more than a dangerous label.
Whumping and cracks should make one alert,
To lurking dangers that do more than hurt.
While new snow is deep, and beckons for tracks—
Make sure yours are safe and driven by facts.
April 1- 2009
​
Here we are on April one,
and no sign yet that winter’s done.
With snow and winds on the way,
avi danger seems here to stay.
Poor bonds to crusts or surface hoar,
should make your travel not a bore.
To provide for safety in this weather,
skill and experience must come together.
Knowing stability’s not that great,
let choice not chance determine fate.
Ski cut, shovel, Rutschblock test…
ECT and all the rest.
Keep aware of whumpfs and cracks,
storing info that you lack.
While untracked beckons with allure,
objective choices are the cure.
Emotion’s fine when you dine
but doesn’t make a safe fall line.
Though untracked beckons and layers mask,
factual choices are your task.
Snowball Poem
We’re winding down the 09 season,
And Snowball is here for a very good reason.
It’s time to have friends share a good time.
And not to listen to some whimsical rhyme.
But I will persist as I’ve done before,
And thank you for listening to more.
The NWAC is grateful for your happy faces,
And your help to stabilize its financial basis.
Without broad support, NWAC would cease,
Giving out forecasts when slides release.
Feds, state and private, all play a part,
In making this center one with heart.