Avalanche Forecast Poems
2007-08

Avalanche Poems 2007-08

November 15, 2007

Think Like a Forecaster

Think Like a Forecaster, in this La Niña Year―

It’s not that hard and it may bring good cheer.

Just track the changes as snowpacks unfold,

When really big storms follow clear and cold.

This can be a recipe for unstable snow,

For remote triggered slabs waiting to go.

So check on structure, energy and strength,

And the changes of each along your trips’ length.

Thinking ahead will lessen the chances,

Of an avalanche coming and filling your pantses.

But if you’re driven by vision of fortune and fame,

In videos that challenge the avalanche game.

If you never think “What if?” or “How Come?”

Or “What will I do?” and you just play dumb.

You may just discover that all is not well,

And this La Niña could be your winter of hell.

November 12, 2007

Winter Approach, 2007

Blue skies gone, replaced by grey―

Snow pack building day by day.

Some layers strong, some layers weak―

Stability changing as we speak.

If you’re unconcerned about the danger,

Then slides to you will be no stranger―

If your main concerns are fortune and fame,

You may well lose the avalanche game.

Cold and dry, followed by snow,

Surface hoar hides, watching dangers grow―

Increased winds create weak layer pain,

All is not well in the land of rain.

But smiles can still be in the mix,

Big air loops and other tricks―

Just need to think and be more mental,

Adjusting routes to terrain more gentle.

Just use some care and some reason,

For safer travel in this early season—

Shallow snowpacks mask hidden features,

Like stumps, rocks and other gnarly creatures.

December 16, 2007

Avalanche Bells (with apologies to Silver Bells)

Avalanche, Avalanche, soon it will all slide away.

Quiet valleys, windswept ridgetops—

On lee slopes there’s a feeling of tension.

Scary snowpack, we do not lack,

Surface fluff masks deeper slab potential.

Analyze, no surprise, it’s caution time in the mountains.

Shooting cracks, some whomping sounds—

Show weak layers and facets near the ground.

Be aware, take some care, it’s your life in the balance.

A big slide, no fun to ride—

You don’t want to go where it’s going.

Avalanche, Avalanche, don’t’ let it carry you away.

Adding more load, is a bad road—

And may not bring just holiday cheer.

Avalanche, Avalanche, soon it will all slide away.

​

December 18, 2007

New gear’s all gathered for a trip to the pow—

Got to try it out, like yesterday, like now!

But just remember, as you head out the door―

Think snowpack, think weather, terrain and more.

Plan routes with wisdom, and the utmost of care―

For friends don’t want searches for you out there.

There are plenty of hours when the danger’s not high―

When not every slope offers a potential to die.

Just kick back for a bit, enjoy more gentle terrain―

Wait for a decrease in danger, like after a rain.

The mountains will be there, and so will the fluff―

There’s almost always plenty, and it will be enough.

It’s hard to say the new snow’s too deep,

But tree wells are looking for souls to keep.

Swallow some pride, less adrenalin please―

A little less air, more turns in the trees.

High marking is fine, with fluffy new snow,

But not when the snowpack is ready to go.

Stay close to your friends, and watch each other,

Make it through this year and into another.

December 19, 2007

Slow down and listen, this ain’t no jive-

You’ve got to ratchet things back to stay alive.

Shooting cracks on the slope, whomps on the ridge-

We’ve got no strong crusts to act as a bridge.

The only crusts we’ve got are faceted and weak-

And loaded by even more snow as we speak.

Settlement is coming but not fast enough-

And it’s hard to focus with all of that fluff.

So whatever your sport, whatever your skill,

Be avalanche aware or else you it will kill.

Early January 2008

Only a pinch of snow for over a week,

Has allowed sun and settling the snowpack to tweak.

But while the hazard’s diminished it’s by no means gone.

And the week ahead will make slabs live on.

Following a period that’s been cold and clear,

The upper part of our pack still inspires some fear.

Weak layers include lots of facets and hoar,

Which have set the stage for danger and more.

All that’s needed are wind and some snow,

And avalanches galore will be ready to go.

The weekend ahead looks ripe for this mix,

So use caution and wisdom while out for your kicks.

Sensitive slabs with whomps and cracking,

Will indicate instability’s not lacking—

Releasing on weakness near a buried crust,

The future snowpack is not one you should trust.

While expected avalanches may initially be small,

It’s not only big ones that need a 911 call.

Route selection is crucial when the dangers get high,

For those that don’t care, the statistics don’t lie.

So when you head out the door and into the white,

Update all the time the world in your sight.

Moving thru terrain changes snowpack and weather,

And demands brain use for safe travel together.

Later January 2008

Though the big ridge is nice, it’s adding some spice—

As temperatures climb, snow becomes less sublime.

Warmed by the sun, trees and rock shed their load—

Melting snow falls on slopes below 

This La Nina winter is unending it seems—

Giving snow of your nightmares amid snow of your dreams.

The snow has been falling, beyond most belief—

And the week ahead promises little relief.

A Big storm on Tuesday, with warming and more—

Will deposit big slabs over abundant surface hoar.

So watch where you’re going, and test it a lot

Easterly exposures should yield the most sensitive spot.

​

Early February 2008

If you think winter’s over, you’re in for surprise,

And a storm late today should open your eyes.

Though bonds initially may be good to a crust,

With strong winds and showers, wind slabs are a must.

So if you’re fixing to go for a ride,

Best check the layering to see what’s inside.

Variations in wind speed or snowfall rate,

May make the stability not that great.

Soft surface snow may be powder to you,

But to buried weak layers it’s a good slab stew.

And watch the sun for breaks after a shower,

As March sun changes stability by the hour.

​

Mid-March 2008

Just when you’re thinking winter’s gone,

and that must be spring that’s comin’ on—

Nature yells and shows who’s in charge,

amid a dump of snow that’s pretty large.

She throws in temps that plummet fast,

and strong winds you hope don’t last—

But on lee slopes you feel the load,

knowing bonds to the crust just won’t hold.

And if your slope’s sunny and feels the rays,

melt comes faster on these lengthening days—

Oh pooh, you say, that’s a little slide,

but it can entrain a lot and give a dangerous ride.

So keep your mind on the fact you’re in terrain,

that requires considerable use of your brain—

Just ‘cause calendars say leave winter behind,

snow doesn’t react with this in mind.

It reacts to stresses no matter what the day,

no matter what you’re thinking or what you say.

Hence be sure you know you’re in avalanche’s lair—

and watch out or you might end up there.

​

​

Mid-May 2008

​

THE LAST WORD—Annual Report 2008

Summer in the Northwest is really no big thing,

As westerly flows strong storms still bring.

That it’s June or July doesn’t bring me much ease,

When web cams still show new snow on the trees.

But at least we’ve made it through a very long winter,

To a time when the snowpack can settle and sinter.

But avalanche dangers may often persist—

As long as steep slopes and snow still coexist.

So throughout the summer and into the fall,

Think about the terrain, not the trip to the mall.

Heed the warnings that sun and warming may bring,

When unstable new snow is a pretty sure thing.

Although new snow may be shallow, bonding well to a crust—

When radiation hits, increased thought is a must.

Though stable snow in the morning is great fun you know—

Gravity and sun add stress, making it flow.

So no matter the month, no matter the season—

If you don’t stay aware, the results won’t be pleasin’.

It doesn’t take much to keep your eyes open—

And a safe summer for you is what we’re all hopin’.

Late May, 2007

Not the End

I can’t believe that it’s almost June,

And we’re leaving behind past forecasts of gloom--

It’s the time of the year for coming together,

To re-assess the future of avalanche weather.

No matter what happens know that we tried,

To develop a great snow stability guide-

We provide data to track snow, wind and rain-

That helps our users to safely manage terrain.

We send out forecasts of weather and snow,

That aid in decisions as when you should go-

We discuss snowpack layers—weak or strong,

And how likely are slides that might come along.

Accidents are analyzed so all can learn,

When it’s time to stop or time to turn-

Forecasts and data and lots of educational stuff,

Yet the reality is that it’s never enough.

But it’s a reliable program that’s efficient and lean,

Managed and funded by a remarkable team-

There’s Federal and State and other important donations,

That help make the Center one of the best in the nation.

I would be “Saddened in Seattle” to see it all go,

Just because a little extra funding didn’t show.

There’s so much positive about what gets done,

This resource for safety in rain, snow or sun.