Avalanche Forecast Poems
2006-07

 

October, 2006​

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Sonnet for Seven (2006/07)—early fall, 2006 

 

I look all around me and know that it’s fall,

But I’m not yet concerned there’s no snow at all. (hardly any)

Whatever the weather, El Niño or not,

Don’t fret just yet about the cool gear you bought.

 

For blocking ridges and split flows may not last,

And the winter ahead could still be a blast.

For we have had deep powder during El Niños you know,

And all have marveled at the depth of the snow.

 

But this isn’t my forecast for winter to be,

As it could make me enemies for eternity.

It’s a plea to relax, be patient and wait,

For soon snow may cover the entire state.

 

It’s just that El Niños skew the odds toward drier,

With temps slightly warmer but not in the fryer.

Odds are high that you’ll find some good snow,

But you’ll have to be crafty and stay in the know. 

 

Hopefully you won’t have to travel too far,

Or fly to a country that for a prez has a czar.

Know that there will be snow closer to home,

Just get ready to drive, hike and roam.

 

​

 November 20, 2006 

​

Heavy rains in November, you know they’re a must,

To successfully transition from a summer of dust.

But enough already, it’s time to move along-

Our snow pack’s too shallow and the crusts too strong. 

 

At least temps are lowering and forecasts show cooling,

As a deep upper low the Gulf of Alaska is ruling.

Rotation ‘round this trough that lies just off the coast,

Should yield snowfall this week that is better than most. 

​

Showers this morning should increase later today,

And storminess Tuesday means more snow’s on the way.

Lighter showers on Wednesday—time to check out your beeper,

For slabs later this week should get progressively deeper. 

 

Along with varying wind and snowfall intensity,

Weak layers will form of variable density.

Time to give thanks for the snowfall and for changing the seasons,

And to make all your trips round trips there are many good reasons.

 

​

 November 23, 2006

 

Before the holiday weekend draws to a close,

The new snow should reach up to your nose-

Carried by winds and temperatures quite low,

Most will rejoice with the strength of the flow. 

​

Yet all is not grand in the land of big drifts,

And unless you’re careful weak layers you’ll miss-

Such layers may form during breaks in the storm,

Or deep in the snowpack weak facets may form.

 

While most snow will be fluffy and get in your face,

Use caution or else a slide you’ll embrace.

And it won’t be soft and caress you like pow,

But may bury you deeply as your mind screams wow. 

​

So enjoy the snowfall but still stay aware,

And do some testing of the layers out there.

Even a small test slope will help you realize,

That snowpack stability should not be a surprise.​

 

December 21, 2006​

​

Jingle Bell Snow—​

​

Splattered through the trees,

In an avalanche of snow―

Plummeting over cliffs and rocks,

Screaming as you go.

 

Beacon on transmit,

Shovel at your side―

Probe poles in your pack,

Are all having quite a ride. 

 

Tumbling through a chute,

With a jumbled mass of snow—

Is never any fun,

No matter what you know. 

 

So be cautious on your trip,

And take a look around―

Don’t be afraid to stop,

And dig down to the ground. 

​

The snow pack’s full of layers,

Some are weak and some are strong―

Shear tests and shear quality,

Can guide you right along. 

 

Think about the snow pack,

And analyze terrain―

Reflect upon the routes you choose

And if snow will change to rain. 

 

Remember don’t be swayed,

But that little mind inside―

Who’d lure you on a slope,

And take you for a ride. 

​

Oh, Jingle bells, beacons on,

Probe and shovel in your pack―

A mind aware as you stare,

At the slope you’d like to track. 

 

Ho Jingle bells, all is well,

Your action’s data driven―

And best of all you’ve checked it out,

And life is what you’re livin’.(safety’s what you’re given)

 

December 25, 2006​

​

 Merry Christmas (draft, not sent)

​

Hoar frost growing under clearing skies,

Jack Frost nipping at your nose,

You know it’s a weakness that must be watched,

Otherwise you’re sure to get hosed. 

 

You know the next storm’s on its way,

Bringing winds and slabs on which to play.

Just be careful out there where you go,

Else you’ll be buried very deeply in that snow. 

 

​

December 25, 2006 (sent)

 

In front of the TV, click, click, click

Too much watching makes one sick—

Out of the house now, go, go, go,

Up to the mountains to enjoy some snow. 

​

Using knowledge keeps one alive,

So study and learn before you arrive.

Assess the terrain and the weather too,

And test the snowpack as you move thru. 

 

Watch out for rain crusts, slick, slick, slick,

For new cold snow to them won’t stick.

Strong winds overnight moved snow, snow, snow,

So steep lee slopes are not a go. 

 

But while you focus on stability,

Don’t fall into holes near a tree.

However you celebrate the holiday,

Remain aware out there you as you play. 

 

Stay around for a great New Year,

Lots of snow and lots of cheer.

Even if the westerlies start to split,

The snowpack’s deep so the fun won’t quit.​

 

​

January 2, 2007​

 

So the New Year’s arrived,

And the rains have begun—

Going out right now,

Shouldn’t be much fun. 

 

Best to wait for a bit,

And let temperatures cool—

It’s better for safety,

As a general rule. 

 

A warming snowpack,

Stressed out by rain—

Can be a real problem,

More than just a pain. 

 

But tonight freezing levels lower,

And rain becomes snow showers—

The old snow refreezes,

And strengthens with the hours. 

 

Tomorrow holds a promise,

Of more moderate snow—

Except near Mt Hood,

Where it may be best not to go. 

 

Then after a break on Thursday,

The jetstream roars back—

And laden with moisture,

The Northwest will attack. 

 

Heavy snow, strong winds,

Friday looks bleak—

And heavy showers persist,

Through the end of the week. 

 

While extended range models,

Sometimes lack in precision,

The trends shown above,

Should aid your decision. 

 

Know that Thursday’s “break”,

May add a weak layer—

Like surface hoar or powder,

Stuff we all like to savor. 

​

So late this week,

When the danger’s high—

If you challenge the snow,

This rhyming won’t lie. 

​

Yet as more snow arrives,

Over the weekend too—

If it warms on Sunday,

Bid the mountains adieu!​

 

​

January 22, 2007 

​

The recent cold weather has been a big boon,

With quality snow that’s made many of us swoon—

To be stuck in the office with tales of cold smoke,

Is heartless reporting, what a terrible joke. 

​

Another downside of cold is the faceted snow,

The weak new crystals that make avalanches go—

Yet with warming ahead and increasing light rain,

Soon we’ll start to bridge over the faceted pain. 

 

Though warming slowly settles and strengthens the snow,

During the process it makes it more cohesive you know—

So as long as facets exist in the pack,

Cohesive slabs can still travelers attack. 

 

Although early this week new snow should be lean,

Just warming the slabs may keep our snowpack mean.

After warm sun on Wednesday and clearing at night,

We’ll form a breakable crust of devilish delight. 

​

Sprinkle this crust with a little surface hoar,

And follow it all with a low at our door.

Strong winds, new snow, increasing cold weather—

Should make new dangers come quickly together.

 

Sensitive slabs late Thursday may be a good bet,

If the weather on Thursday is cool and wet—

Just be aware out there and avoid a disaster,

For you’d rather be here, not in the hereafter. 

 

If this all makes sense,

I’d better stop rhyming,

For my regular forecasts

may lack this good timing.  

 

​

Jan 28, 2007 

 

As big ridges go, it was bigger than most,

Making chances for new snow pretty much toast.

Mostly clear and warm above a low level inversion,

Lighter winds Sunday bring false spring immersion. 

​

A stable rex block languishes just offshore,

With upper high over low parked at our door—

Storms trying hard to break through the block,

Are sent packing to Alaska where rain is a lock. 

 

Meanwhile to the south, LA gets some rain,

From a stationary low that has little to gain—

Further east waves move round a Hudson Bay low,

Bringing storms to the east coast along with some snow. 

 

Closer to home the block’s likely to last,

Until all of January is well in the past—

Though weak storms moving southward just to the east,

Bring light snow and winds to the Rockies at least. 

 

Here in the Northwest mostly fair skies should rule,

Above moister east pass flow where temps are cool.

Though we might get some clouds as storms skirt by,

And some increase in winds as late Monday draws nigh. 

 

Each model run differs on the reign of the ridge,

Whether we’re warm and dry or staying in the fridge.

Much is uncertain toward the end of the week,

Will the ridge be undercut by storms that we seek?

 

 But as our snowpack develops with crusts and with hoar,

New snow will bring danger with these as the floor.

So enjoy the break but prepare for some snow,

For dryness ahead is not the Northwest we know. 

 

​

February 3, 2007 

​

I know it’s hard to see the ridge go,

To leave the corn and the crusty old snow—

But don’t fear too much, the crusts will be back,

After a day or so of the rain that we’ve lacked. 

 

Along with light rain, there’s wind and some warming,

Weakening old crusts while new ones are forming.

With some facets below a weakening crust,

Increasing awareness is a definite must. 

 

Most slides should be wet and most of them small,

But isolated slabs on buried facets may fall.

And open glide cracks that receive the new rain,

Will lubricate the slab and may be a pain.

 

To say that the future looks snowy and cold,

Would be quite exciting but a lie very bold.

So the reality Monday is for warm and fair,

And a weak storm Tuesday puts rain in the air. 

 

Wednesday looks wetter but not really cool,

If you look at the skies you’ll swear it’s drool.

Increasing light rain, with some snow pretty high,

Is what split flows give, but at least it’s not dry.

 

Then Thursday’s promise shifts rain to snow,

But by then the forecast will be different you know.

So stay tuned and don’t give up on the season,

Just enjoy and be safe, whatever your reason.​​