Avalanche Forecast Poems
2005-06

NWAC Poetry 2005-2006
-Mark Moore
 
THU DEC 29 2005:
 
It's three days before the end of the year,
And recent snows have changed gloom to cheer...
With more on the way spirits are soaring-
For the weather ahead will be anything but boring.
 
After a quick time of drying, the westerlies arrive,
And tonight and Friday should shift park to drive;
Heavy snow, high winds, we'll break but not bend,
Just need to get through a brief warming trend.
 
The easterly flow will help near the crest,
And will minimize the rain as that's for the best,
As we close the year and start out 06,
The weekend ahead looks snowy and brisk...
 
So enjoy these storms and the ones next week,
But stay aware of the danger and don't slide down the peak-
Keep checking for clues wherever you go,  
For it's hard to enjoy if you're under the snow.  
 
 

WED JAN 11 2006:
 
More wind, rain and snow?
Stop it you say-
But haven't you heard,
There's more on the way?
 
For a time at least,
The jetstream is back-
And headed right at us,
On a very fast track.
 
After decreasing tonight,
And brief drought in the morning-
The snow should increase,
And bring an avalanche warning.
 
Weak layers will be buried,
With wind slabs we'll make-
Along with brief warming,
To spice up our cake.
 
An old crust at the bottom,
Weak layer that's no stranger-
Add a big heavy slab
And you've got some high danger.
 
So be avalanche aware,
Wherever you go-
It's time to focus,
And stay on top of the snow.
 
 
THU JAN 26 2006:
 
Out with the old,
In with the new-
Clouds have arrived,
Gone is the blue.
 
The westerly flow's,
Pounding on the door-
Puttin' snow on the crust,
And load on the hoar.
 
Showers this morning,
Then more snow after that
At least temps stay low,
About where they're at.
 
This creates more weak layers
And buries the hoar-
Makes Friday thru Sunday,
Anything but a bore.
 
Friday's showers and winds,
Should increase by night-
Making the weekend,
A rather dangerous delight.
 
A good front Saturday,
Windy, snowy and cool-
Should make slabs more likely,
As a reasonable rule.
 
Then warming on Sunday
With heavy rain or wet snow-
Should make bigger slabs,
More than ready to go.
 
Danger should climb,
And it might not stop-
Until it reaches,
Pretty close to the top.
 
So if you're plannin' this weekend,
To sample the snow-
Make sure you're prepared-
And know how to go.
 
Be aware and be cautious,
Be objective and think-
And don't go ahead,
If red lights blink.
 
There will be other times,
Other slopes and great snow-
And you'll be much better off
If that's when you go.
 
 
SUN JAN 29 2006:
 
Whether you're skiing or shredding, or riding the pow,
There are times to be out, it's just not right now.
The danger's been building for almost a week,
If it's not high to extreme it will be unique.
 
Winds should increase along with snow density-
And the precip should reach a very high intensity.
Sunday afternoon and night freezing levels will climb-
And recent good skiing will cease being sublime.
 
We've got plenty of buried weak layers to stress-
And when they release, it'll be a big mess.
Heavy snow or rain will load start zones and track-
Making runouts the place for debris piles to stack.
 
So hang up your snowshoes and put your skis on the rack-
The back country right now is not a good track.  
You don't want to be part of that moving snow,
Because if you're caught it may not let go.
 
 
SAT FEB 04 2006:
 
The final storm of the recent bout,
Is moving through with little doubt.
Heavy showers with high winds that are shifting,
Should bring locally heavy deposits of drifting.
 
Today is stormy with high wind closures,
And much greater danger on lee exposures.
Windward slopes may see snow devoured,
Wind erosion, sastrugi and slopes that are scoured.
 
Stability changing with aspect and place,
Visibility tough with wind in your face.
Be wary of slopes loading lower than norm,
And unstable cornices quite large from the storm.
 
While you'll need lots of awareness today,
Tomorrow promises to send most clouds away.
With decreased winds and showers that stop,
Slabs should start settling and danger should drop.  
 
By early Tuesday ridging gets larger and finer,
After a weak wave Monday should be very minor.
So warmer and fair for much of next week,
Sounds like a forecast we don't have to tweak.
 
Just remember that warming and snow don't mix,
And some surface snow may be stressed by such tricks.
Glide cracks and cornices should be treated with care,
If they release and slide you don't want to be there.
 
Otherwise enjoy this break from the past,
Relax and rest 'cause you know it won't last.
And know that fair skies are anything but a bore,
For crusts can develop along with surface hoar.
 
 

SAT FEB 11 2006:

 

It’s hard to believe,

What the weather has done,

From clouds, wind and snow,

To the warmth of bright sun.

 

Now on south facing slopes,

You’ve got a nice crust,

Breakable in places,

Making skiing quite a bust.

 

At least the danger is low,

From settlement and rounding-

Not much loose snow to move,

Though pass winds have been pounding.

 

But the real problem is,

What may glitter on top-

It’s that little surface hoar,

That clear nights like to drop.

 

You’ll know it right away,

From each sparkling facet-

That tinkles and fractures,

As soon as you pass it.

 

But winds and sun,

Have made its development sporadic-

Confined to sheltered locations,

Where formation’s more automatic.

 

But imagine a load,

Perched over this layer-

It’s a recipe that’s doomed,

From the start for failure.

 

So as soon as the ridge,

Flattens or moves-

And we go back into,

Some real stormy grooves.

 

The stage is all set,

For danger to be rising-

With a crust and hoar frost,

It’s not all that surprising.

 

And in places with no,

Surface hoar to find-

Watch temps with new snow,

To see how it will bind.

 

Models show that next week,

Should get windy and cold-

And if you throw in some snow,

Sensitive slabs may not hold.

 

The cold weather should allow,

Temperature gradients to develop-

And associated vapor transport,

Upper layers will envelop.

 

The resulting new crystals,

Will be faceted and meek-

Concentrating near crusts,

Where bonds will be weak.

 

So stay aware of the weather,

And the changing snowpack-

And make note of the layers,

Before the slabs attack.

 

 

FRIDAY FEB 17, 2006

 

Please oh please, no more rhyming-

Don’t you know, it’s really bad timing?

There’s scant new snow and the weather is cold-

My face is frozen and my edges won’t hold.

 

Northeasterly flow around an omega block,

Is bringing cold air of which we must take stock-

Along with increased winds in the frigid flow,

Wind chills may plummet to 30 below.

 

And the effect on the snowpack is to weaken and facet,

And form shallow slabs that may release as we pass it.

Crusts that were hard should fade toward the finish,

With the bond of new snow bound to diminish.

 

Down there near strong density variations-

Vapor transfer’s at work, making crystal striations.

Weakness is rampant, facets are radiant,

Driven by a strong temperature gradient.

 

Plus there’s surface hoar, here and there-

Lying over the crust, and exposed to the air.

It’s fragile yet lovely with a long lever arm-

Load it up with a slab and it loses its charm.

 

So lots to think on with low to moderate danger,

Check out the snowpack, make your shovel no stranger.

Probe and test and think of weather to be,

For this weak structure will get loaded eventually.

 

 

SUNDAY, MAR 5, 2006

 

Here it is, the last month of the winter,

A time to stabilize, a time to sinter-

But out there now some weak layers are forming

Ready to be buried by future storming.

 

Cool temps at night favor facets and hoar,

Not very positive when you think what’s in store-

First light snow on Sunday at a low freezing level,

With some wind on ridgetops, ain’t that the devil?

 

Showers on Monday, windier and cool,

Should make shallow slabs that may confuse and fool-

Brief clearing on Tuesday may dull our sense-

To a big storm that’s coming with snow quite dense.

 

Tuesday night and Wednesday promise to be quite ferocious,

With high winds, heavy snow and weather quite atrocious-

Larger slabs should develop over a variety of weak snow,

A recipe for avalanches if you believe what you know.

 

So take a moment to think how layers are stacking,

And perform some tests to see if stability’s lacking-

Keep aware of the forecasts and see if it’s time,

To check out the bar for a beer and a lime.

 

 

SATURDAY, March 18, 2006

 

Here it’s almost spring, I just can’t believe it,

Light snow keeps coming, just can’t seem to leave it.

Although the quality’s good and the density’s low,

Stay alert for areas of slabbier snow.

 

Near ridges where winds have increased in intensity,

The snow’s more cohesive due to a higher density.

While most slabs should be shallow & on an east facing slope-

If you happen to be caught, you’ll feel like a dope.

 

And when there’s some clearing and the sun starts to shine-

Snow melting and weakening may create a bad time.

As it releases off rocks or cliffs or from trees,

It may trigger wet slides that could damage your knees.

 

Then as the old upper trough moves to the east,

Decreasing clouds late Saturday should follow this beast.

A weak ridge on Sunday lasting a day or more,

Should increase solar warming and night’s surface hoar.

 

So expect lots of action on sun exposed snow,

As clearing makes surface snow ready to go-

Be especially careful where slides have been lacking

For here more snow will likely start tracking.

 

Be aware of the date and the time of the year,

For snow changes quickly and slush is quite near.

Soft snow in the morning may start out quite stable,

But daytime warming may reverse the danger table.

 
 

SATURDAY, April 8, 2006

 

Once again an upper low is splitting offshore,

Continuing to give us what we’ve had before-

Some increasing rain changing to snow,

Should spread northward in weak southerly flow.

 

While this should bring a decrease in stability,

Recognizing unstable new snow is within your ability-

Remember warming makes new snow viscous and weak,

And with gravity pulling it downhill the snow will creep.

 

Daytime warming and sun breaks between showers,

Will weaken snow quickly in minutes not hours-

So while many wet loose slides may start small,

They can trigger wet slabs and spread out as they fall.

 

Watch out as spring snow is often deceiving,

And hard to extract once the slide starts leaving-

Mostly likely places are beneath rock bands and trees,

And beneath new cornices that fall when they please.

 

And if the longer range forecast models are correct,

Winter may return with serious snow to inject-

So stay tuned for updates regards later next week,

To see if it’s new snow and powder that you’ll seek.

 

But if this transpires and becomes a reality,

The danger should soar with slides quite a malady-

At least right now this forecasts still a dream

In the murky world of weather you know what I mean.

 

 

SUNDAY, April 16 2006

 

The calendar says spring, but recent weather says No-

For it’s windy and cold, with lots of new snow.

Big cornices on ridgetops,with wind slabs below-

Lots of stuff to consider, wherever you go.

 

Increasing showers on Sunday, and some should have thunder-

And lightning with snow? It does make you wonder.

And it’s the time of the year, that radiation’s intensity-

Makes new snow unstable, as it raises the density.

 

Though new snow at nine, can often be sublime-

By ten or eleven, you’re no longer in heaven

Although new snow may fall as lower density powder-

Once warmed during the day, it becomes thicker than chowder.

 

During breaks between showers, snow melts and becomes slabby-

And the skiing or the riding, can become rather shabby.

Surface snow melts quickly, and powder starts flowing-

Cornices start breaking, and slides start going.

 

Melting of surface snow makes the danger rise,

As avalanches rip out, in front of your eyes.

So think about the weather, the snow pack and terrain-

And when heading out include, a well thinking brain.

 
 

MONDAY, April 17, 2006 

 

Watch out, watch out, don’t pay the price-

Be aware of the snow, and heed this advice.

New snow and sun can be a good thing-

But not if arriving this late in the spring.

 

When freezing levels rise, and winds remain light-

Sunny warm weather makes the snow quite a fright.

Strong sunshine will cause snow to melt and react-

And flow river-like downhill, it’s a documented fact.

 

Though melted snow refreezes at night and strengthens-

Melt may progress deeper as the daytime lengthens.

Probe the snow layers, and feel how strong-

If you don’t feel some strength, then move right along.

 

As glide cracks open and deep snow gets wetter-

Slides can entrain more snow much better.

Look at the snow grains—are they getting wet and round?

Then odds are increasing for slides to the ground.

 

So check the snow often, and watch the weather too—

If it gets unstable real fast, the terrain’s up to you.

Make the choices you choose the ones you survive,

And return from each trip healthy and alive.

 

 

SUNDAY, April 23, 2006 (last regularly scheduled forecast)

 

Here I am at the office, and to my increasing surprise-

The seasons are changing, before my startled eyes.

What last week was winterlike, windy and cold,

Has become almost summery with a ridge so bold.

 

The once dominant trough along the west coast,

Has become a strong high, bringing warming to most.

And the old upper low is no longer splitting,

It’s moved some other place where it’s happily sitting.

 

The snow may have stopped but it hasn’t departed,

So continue awareness from wherever you started-

For most of the snow pack’s preferred resting place,

Is down in the valleys where it stabilizes in place.

 

High freezing levels, sunshine, or warm spring rain,

High clouds that amplify radiational gain-

The snowpack doesn’t care why it’s weak or unstable,

Or if travelers are careless when they could be more able.

 

Just remember in Northwest mountains in spring,

Safety is truly a relative thing-

For until snow melts into lupine and clover,

It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.

 

 

Annual Cooperators Report Poem (last page)

 

THE END

 

I can’t believe it’s already early June,

And avalanche lilies are starting to bloom-

It’s time for cooperators to all get together,

And discuss the future of avalanche weather.

 

No matter what the outcome know that we tried,

To give folks a good snow stability guide-

We provided data to track snow and rain-

That help in safely managing terrain.

 

We provided forecasts of weather and snow,

That aid in decisions as when you should go-

We discuss snowpacks and how the layers are stacked,

And whether it’s likely that slides will attack

 

Accidents are analyzed so all of us can learn,

When it’s time to go ahead and when it’s time to turn-

Forecasts and data and lots of educational stuff,

Yet the reality is that it’s never enough.

 

But it’s a well run program that’s efficient and lean,

Managed and funded by a remarkable team-

There’s Federal, State, County and private donations,

That help make the center one of the best in the nation.

 

T’would be a sad day in Seattle to see it all go,

Just because a little extra funding didn’t show.

There’s so much positive about what gets done,

This resource that helps promote safe snow fun.