Since this is the 50th anniversary of the NW Avalanche Center, and I was a part of its development and that great history, I thought I'd share some thoughts on the forecasting process in rhyme..both as a meteorologist and as an avalanche forecaster. The Forecast Arriving at the office, oh dark 30, Looks like a bad one, long and dirty… A shallow snow pack, a week of cold, Weather change coming, a storm quite bold. Not much happening, the past week or more, Yet now the storm track’s knocking at our door. BC users antsy, haven’t seen much pow, But with new snow coming, soon could be wow! Highways are concerned, no slides of late, Still lots of weak snow, don’t want to wait. Control seems likely, once snow arrives, Highways closing, to save some lives. But the powder seekers are keen to go, Big air and figure eights, all for show. Sooner not later is the basic theme, Snow over the shoulder, time to dream. So lots of pressure to get things right, Keep folks safe, try to be the light. Model’s not helping, all over the place, Act like you know, put on a good face. Then one more model run, forecasts align, Combine obs and data, not much time. Lots of thought, about what to say, Make it meaningful for everyone’s day. Lots of charts, graphics, and text to fill, Emphasize risk and safety, making it real. Deadline coming, don’t be late, Folks ready to see and decide their fate. There, the forecast’s out, say some prayers, Hoping all respect the buried weak layers. Highway avi control has closed the passes, Debris on the roadway, way over their asses. Talk with Ski Patrol, folks out in the field, Is it really as dangerous as the forecasts revealed? Lots of obs received, thanks for thoughts that were needed, You slowly nod, glad your words were heeded. You take a big breath, can’t pause for long, New models are in, and they sing a new song. So you push out updates, to help avalanche control, More snow is expected, more fire in the hole. But at least you alerted, folks far and wide, On projected dangers, and no one has died. With control on the passes, big slides were detected, With motorists glad, safe travel was respected. --Mark Moore, February 2026
The Avalanche Forecaster For all of those in the "hot seat" of avalanche or weather forecasting, it's good to take time to remember forecasting issues and stresses from days gone by, as these experiences helped form us into what we are today. With this in mind, I offer this rhyme... The Avalanche Forecaster I was in the mountains just a few hours ago, Marveling at the quality and depth of new snow. Now it’s 1 AM, I can’t sleep and am worried, I need to head to the office, so as not to be hurried. There’s a big storm coming with plenty of warming, And the snow pack is sensitive to expected storming, There is little doubt that the highways will close, When the snow pack is hit by this big fire hose. The backcountry and highways will surely feel it all, When the danger’s extreme, big slides come to call. Have to make a forecast, words and graphics matter, Folks take it to heart, becoming viral chatter. Just have to stress, we don’t really know, How big or how deep will the avalanches go? But a slide cycle is imminent, of that we are certain, Need to open some eyes and pull back the curtain. So much to think about, it’s all very intense, Must grab some coffee, help it all make sense. There are facets and crust, badness jumbled together, All the current layering is really ripe for this weather. Avalanche warning now issued, danger’s full of extremes, Don’t go play in the back country, not even in dreams. The highways may close, should be aware of their fate, Maybe time to stay home, your trip it can wait. —Mark Moore, March 2026